Once again, it’s the season of that modern fortune-telling tradition of poll-reading. The mainstream media loves the horserace aspects of the Presidential campaign and so they like to focus on the national polls, as if the President were elected directly via the popular vote. The fact is that the race for President is not one campaign but a series of 51 campaigns as each state and DC choose who will cast the only votes for President that really count, their Electors in the Electoral College.
And so the national polls showing Obama and Romney virtually tied at about 45% each mean almost nothing. What really matters are the state polls. And so, let me introduce you to ElectoralVote (http://electoral-vote.com). I’ve been reading this since the 2004 elections and it does a really good job of showing how the Presidential election is really going. The short version, if Mitt Romney wants to be living in government housing by this time next year, he’s going to have to find a way to break into some states that lean pretty heavily Democratic. I don’t think anybody who can make Republican Primary voters happy is going to do very well at that task.
The GOP’s biggest long term problem is that they have spent quite a few years now doing everything they can to alienate huge portions of the population. In the current race to replace Kay Bailey Hutchison as Senator from Texas, the Republicans have been explicitly using “moderate” as a dirty thing that no politician should ever be, certainly not a Republican. Way to go Republicans. Way to alienate the biggest part of the bell curve. Good luck with that.